Property Tax and School Appropriation Models: Actual and Fitted

The School Appropriation Model1

agenda

School Appropriation 1998-2025 Actual and Fitted
If you don't see a red dot, it's hidden behind the black dot.

The Property Tax Model2

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Property Tax Levy 1992-2025 Actual and Fitted
If you don't see a red dot, it's hidden behind the black dot.

References and Footnotes

1This is a state of the art predictive analytics model fit3,4 with R and STAN using knitr and RStudio. Reference Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics Exam April 2024 Syllabus, Advanced Topics in Predictive Analytics Exam Syllabus/Learning Objectives, Casualty Actuarial Society Modern Actuarial Statistics II Exam, April/May 2024 Exam Content Outline. The output report is here.
2This is also a predictive analytics model, and also fit with R and STAN using knitr and RStudio. The output report is here.
3Gabry et al,Visualization in Bayesian Workflow, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, Volume 182, Issue 2, February 2019, Pages 389–402, https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12378
4Gelman et al,Bayesian Workflow, arXiv:2011.01808 [stat.ME]