Growth in assessed value generally exceeds taxes paid.

Based on tax records for 3,300 single family homes that were listed as such on both the 1992 and 2023 tax rolls:

• In round numbers, $860 million in taxes was paid, and total property value increased by $1 billion.
• The median of the 3,300 growth factors for the assessed value was 3.4, meaning the 2023 valuation was 3.4 times the 1992 valuation.
• Tax and valuation histories for single family homes are posted here.
• It is evident from the graphs that the debt service from the Cole construction did not produce a spike in tax bills.
• It is also evident that in general revaluations do not produce spikes in tax bills.

Cropper/McKibben Enrollment Forecast

Based on the 2021 Cropper/McKibben Demographics Analysis

• The McKibben forecast used a much more sophisticated demographics model (the Cohort Component Method) than previous projections.
• The model considers not only enrollment history, but census data, birth rates, mortality, in-migration, and out-migration.
• Other projections only considered enrollment history and births, and had very unstable long-term forecasts that were not always consistent with historical trends.
• McKibben's long-term forecasts are entirely consistent with historical trends.

The 2019 Milone and MacBroom Demographics Analysis

State Code	Dot Count	Total Parcels
01 Single Family	1,300	3,915
02 2-5 Family	106	159
04 Combo	12	160
23 Res Condo	64	323
All Other	29	604
Total	1,511	5,161

There are three primary reasons:

• In terms of assessed property value per resident, East Greenwich is not particularly wealthy, ranking 11th. Other towns have a considerably larger tax base per capita.
• State education aid varies greatly by town. If every town had to raise their FY2022 state education aid through residential property taxes, East Greenwich's adjusted tax rate would rank 19th
• With 0.20 public school students per capita compared to the state average of 0.12, East Greenwich has more students enrolled in public schools per capita than any other community except Barrington.

• The Recapitulation Page is a legal document submitted by the Tax Assessor every year.
• It provides reliable documentation on tax rates, total assessed value, and total tax levy in a standardized format.
• These records for East Greenwich are available beginning just after the Civil War
• Contrary to the narrative of unsustainable tax growth that we have seen, the tax rate is about the same it was a century ago, and there is no significant trend up or down.
• That said, the advent of the 4% levy cap guarantees that the tax rate will fall over time, although this will only be evident at the end of revaluation cycles.
• The sawtooth pattern you see is purely an artifact of the periodic revaluation cycles that began in 1952. Rates generally increase every year of the cycle (with two exceptions, 1958 and 2017) then fall back to something close to the long-term average when a revaluation is done. These increases have nothing to do with expenses.